An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC by JT Houghton, LG Meira Filho, DJ Griggs and K Maskell (Eds).

By JT Houghton, LG Meira Filho, DJ Griggs and K Maskell (Eds).

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Extra info for An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC Technical Paper II - February 1997)

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60 Sea level change (cm) 32 Total Thermal expansion Glaciers/ice caps Greenland Antarctica 40 49 28 20 16 6 0 –20 –1 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Figure 13. 8). 3) is also based on the summation of separate contributions from ocean thermal expansion, melting of glaciers and ice-caps, and changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. However, the procedures used to compute the contributions from these components differ in several important ways from those described above. , 1995), applied separately to the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean basins and coupled to a zonally (east-west) averaged atmospheric model (Bintanja, 1995).

5°C 1 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Figure 11. 5˚C and with aerosol emissions increasing (solid lines) or constant after 1990 (dashed lines). 20). An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report changes in both cases are global mean values; to project regional sea level changes requires taking into account vertical land movement and changes in ocean currents and winds. Computation of the latter two effects requires the use of a coupled AOGCM, as in Gregory (1993).

3) projections of global mean temperature and sea level beyond 1990. 08 W m-2 in 1990. Up to 1990, tropospheric ozone radiative forcing associated with emissions other than CH4 is also included. 32 W m-2 by 1990, and is then held constant. 6). Problems also remain with regard to stratospheric models, which still cannot fully explain observed stratospheric O3 losses. 7, plus a bromine loading term weighted relative to chlorine by a factor of about 40 at present. The forcing associated with stratospheric ozone loss is then assumed to be directly proportional to the ozone loss, leading to the relationship between forcing and chlorine and bromine loading given in Appendix 2.

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